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18 Jul 2021  (1292 Views) 
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Covid-19 crisis


Four rings connected with the KTV clusters
The minister for health Ong Ye Kung explained the four rings of people who are connected directly or indirectly with the KTV clusters in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uGDVIoSIBE

Ring 1 - 170 staff and patrons of the KTV lounges captured by Safe Entry and Trace Together - 17 tested positive (10%)

Ring 2 - 1,664 staff and patrons not captured by SE/TT - 25 tested positive (1%)

Ring 3 - 2,000 people in close contact with the 17 infected people, mostly outside of KTV lounges - they are legally required to be tested

Ring 4 - 10,000 people who visited malls and other places that are visited by the 17 infected people (captured by Safe Entry) - advised to monitor their health.

Here is my analysis of the infection.

The 17 positive cases (10%) under ring 1 are likely to be mostly staff of the KTV lounges. Their exposure is high.

The 25 positive cases (1%) in ring 2 represents the rate of transmission of close contacts.

I would expect maybe 0.5% of ring 3 to b tested positive. That may give 100 cases. But the final number is likely to be much lower.

I expect 0 cases from ring 4. I believe that the Safe Entry recording is likely to be not useful.

I also believe that the infected cases are likely to be mild. 

The minister mentioned the 14 day incubation period where more cases may be captured in the first 3 rings. I think that this may increase the 1% to 1.5%, but the impact is likely to be small.

Will this cluster explode and get out of control? If it does, we will see the number of new cases increasing in an exponential manner from the table below.

It has already started to decline.  So, the situation is probably under control.

Tan Kin Lian
 


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